There’s a popular perception that “dividend stocks,” stocks known for paying out consistent dividends, can deliver decent returns, while also creating a dependable income stream for spending in retirement or elsewhere. But is loading up on dividend stocks really such a good idea? Building a concentrated position in dividend stocks may be appealing at first glance, but a closer look reveals cracks in the foundation. First, let’s look at how dividend stocks deliver their returns. Next, let’s see why we prefer the total return approach of a more globally diversified investment portfolio, even when you’re spending down your investments in retirement.

More Dividends Equals Less Capital

One of the greatest misperceptions about stock dividends is that they represent “free” or “extra” money, beyond the capital value of the shares you hold. This free-dividend fallacy leads many investors to think of stocks as their “cake,” and dividends as an extra layer of frosting. However, this view is not true.

As University of Chicago’s Samuel Hartzmark explains:

“[I]f you have a stock that is worth $10 and it pays a dollar worth of dividend, the price goes to $9, and you’ve got a dollar worth of dividend. So, unlike the bond where, if it paid a certain coupon payment, you end up with more money, when you receive a dividend, you have the exact same amount of money, just labeled slightly differently.”

Think of it like this—dividends are a bite out of your cake. You might not notice a specific dividend-driven price drop, since market pricing mechanisms are always instantaneously adjusting share prices based on myriad factors. But it’s there. Post-dividend, your stock—your slice of a company—is worth a tiny bit less.

Let’s set the stage by discussing how we think about portfolio construction and why we often look beyond traditional stocks and bonds in an attempt to build more robust client portfolios. Most of our clients' primary objective is to improve their odds of meeting their financial goals, such as retirement. We believe broad diversification helps portfolios because the more asset classes and strategies that provide positive returns over time and diversify one another, the more predictable the portfolio’s range of returns. Furthermore, the more independently each asset class moves related to one another, the closer the correlation is to zero, and the more positive its diversification benefits. The end result of a broadly diversified portfolio is that it should experience a smoother ride over the long run.  Carl Richards of Behavior Gap does a nice job of simplifying this concept through the image.

The Allodium Investment Committee analyzes our recommended asset classes, strategies and portfolios eachyear. One newer asset class we’ve been evaluating is known as private debt. Without going into the specifics of any specific fund, let’s cover the basics of this asset class and why it is garnering attention.

What is Private Debt?

Private debt (also known as private credit) is comprised of direct loans made to U.S. middle-market companies bynonbank lenders. Borrowers typically have annual profits in the $10-100 million range and are similar in size to small and mid-cap companies in publicly traded equity markets.[1] The word “private” refers to the fact that these loans are not publicly tradeable and are meant to be held to maturity.  As a result, lenders are rewarded by an illiquidity premium that results in higher yields than most traditional bonds.

Direct loans have been a rapidly growing area of the investment universe in recent years, and direct lending increased 250% from its $400 billion size in 2019.  Larry Swedroe, Director of Research for The BAM Alliance, explained in a recent blog, “The enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010 made it increasingly expensive for small banks to operate, cutting off their supply of loans to small and mid-sized companies. As a result, private debt funds stepped in to fill the gap.” [2]

In late September 2022, the U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high in an index that measures its value against six major currencies: the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the Swiss franc. At the same time, a broader inflation-adjusted index that captures a basket of 26 foreign currencies reached its highest level since 1985. Both indexes eased slightly but remained near their highs in October.[1–2] Intuitively, it might seem that a strong dollar is good for the U.S. economy, but the effects are mixed in the context of other domestic and global pressures.

World Standard

The U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency. About 40% of global financial transactions are executed in
dollars, with or without U.S. involvement.[3] As such, foreign governments, global financial institutions, and multinational companies all hold dollars, providing a level of demand regardless of other forces.

Demand for the dollar tends to increase during difficult times as investors seek stability and security. Despite
high inflation and recession predictions, the U.S. economy remains the strongest in the world.[4] Other countries are battling inflation, too, and the strong dollar is making their battles more difficult. The United States recovered more quickly from the pandemic recession, putting it in a better position to weather inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve's aggressive policy to combat inflation by raising interest rates has driven demand for the dollar even higher because of the appealing rates on dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. Treasury securities.

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